What happens if a submarine volcanic eruption in the central Bismarck Sea gives birth to a new island? NASA scientist explains

The submarine volcanic eruption in the central Bismarck Sea, a relatively deep body of water north of Papua New Guinea, according to NASA, has captured the attention of scientists and appears to have opened up the possibility of a new island forming, an event rarely witnessed in real time.

How did it all begin?

On May 8, 2026, seismometers detected a series of small earthquakes in the central Bismarck Sea, followed shortly by satellite imagery that revealed clear signs of a submarine volcanic eruption unfolding beneath the waves.


The eruption is believed to be occurring along Titan Ridge, a previously unmapped volcanic feature in a remote, tectonically active part of the Pacific Ocean. However, scientists say there is still little clarity or consensus about which volcanic feature is erupting, how deep the active vent originally was, or when it last erupted.

The Bismarck Sea has a geologically complex seafloor shaped by faults, volcanic features, rifts, scarps, and active subduction and spreading zones. The eruption is believed to be occurring along Titan Ridge, about 16 kilometers southeast of the site of a 1972 submarine eruption that lasted only four days.

The eruption confronted scientists with the difficult task of studying an unfolding event in a region lacking high‑resolution mapping, making it challenging to accurately assess both the eruption and its evolving impact.

What did satellites reveal about the eruption?

As the eruption unfolded, a series of satellite observations tracked its evolution over the following days. On May 9, NASA's Aqua and Terra satellites recorded white, steam-filled plumes rising above the sea, while the ocean color instrument aboard NASA's PACE (Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, Ocean Ecosystem) satellite detected patches of discolored, turbulent water around the eruption site, according to NASA.

Satellite observations also showed ash clouds climbing several kilometers into the atmosphere. More detailed images collected by the European Space Agency's Sentinel-2 on May 10 and NASA/USGS Landsat 9 on May 11 offered a closer look at the activity at the ocean surface, with false-color imagery revealing the eruption's infrared heat signature. On May 12, the VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) instrument on Suomi NPP had identified thermal hotspots covering about seven square kilometers.

Is a new island about to be born?

Emphasizing a new likely opportunity from this eruption, Jim Garvin, the chief scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, said, “We’re now eagerly waiting to see if a new island is about to be born, something that we’ve only rarely been able to observe with satellites as it happens,” as quoted by NASA.

According to NASA, if new land does emerge, scientists will monitor it closely to determine whether it develops into a tuff cone with a long-lived vent crater or collapses and erodes rapidly. The eruption could also become more explosive if seawater reaches the shallow magma chamber that has risen within the growing underwater structure.

As of now, the eruption has been less explosive than other recent submarine events, and how long the eruption will last remains uncertain. If a new island rises from this eruption, scientists will be watching its every move.