Ukraine’s deep strikes inside Russia may push the war toward a catastrophic nuclear crisis; expert warns

Ukraine targeted Russian oil facilities near St. Petersburg, including infrastructure at the Baltic port of Vysotsk, on Saturday, July 4, in one of its deepest attacks inside Russian territory. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the strikes were to disrupt revenues that fund Russia's war effort, while Russian officials reported a large-scale drone attack across the Leningrad region.

As Kyiv expands its ability to hit strategic targets hundreds of kilometers from the front line, some Western analysts see the campaign as evidence that Ukraine is increasing pressure on Moscow. Others, however, argue that the military and political consequences could be far more dangerous.

Among them is Ted Galen Carpenter, a senior fellow at the Randolph Bourne Institute and contributing editor at The National Security Journal, who argues that a decisive Ukrainian victory could raise, not reduce, the risk of nuclear escalation.

The greatest danger may come if Russia faces an existential defeat

In a recent analysis, Carpenter cautions against interpreting successful Ukrainian drone strikes as evidence that the war has fundamentally shifted in Kyiv's favor. "Russia, the larger, more populous country with a bigger, more lethal military force, is still better positioned to win a war of attrition," Carpenter writes.

According to him, spectacular attacks on oil refineries, air bases, or military infrastructure may create dramatic images, but they do not necessarily alter the broader strategic balance.

He points to last year's Operation Spiderweb, when Ukraine carried out a surprise drone attack on Russian strategic bomber bases. While the operation was widely celebrated in the West, Carpenter argues that Russia continued advancing on the battlefield despite the setback.

"Overall, Moscow continued winning the war, albeit slowly and at great cost in terms of military hardware and the lives of Russian soldiers," he writes.

Why nuclear escalation cannot be ruled out

Carpenter's central concern is not that Ukraine is striking Russian territory, but what could happen if the Kremlin ever concluded that it was on the verge of a catastrophic defeat.

According to his analysis, such a scenario could prompt Russia to dramatically escalate the conflict rather than accept strategic collapse. "If the Kremlin ever finds itself truly at risk of an existential defeat that would knock Russia from the ranks of the great powers, it is highly probable that Russian leaders will do whatever is necessary to avert it," Carpenter argues.

He suggests possible responses could include intensified attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, covert sabotage against NATO countries supporting Kyiv, or, in the worst-case scenario, the use of tactical nuclear weapons. "Worst of all, desperate retaliation from a beleaguered Russia facing a humiliating defeat might take the form of using tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine," Carpenter writes.

An opinion that contrasts with more optimistic assessments

Carpenter's analysis stands in contrast to commentators who argue that Ukraine's growing drone capabilities are steadily shifting the balance of the war.

Following recent strikes near Moscow and St. Petersburg, several analysts have suggested that Russia is becoming vulnerable to attacks deep inside its territory and losing grounds.

Last month in an analysis published by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), international relations scholar Michael C. Horowitz wrote that Ukraine's innovation in drone warfare has translated into measurable territorial gains. According to Horowitz, Ukrainian forces retook 78 square miles over five days in February 2026, and their drones are now capable of striking "thirty to one hundred kilometers behind the front lines," forcing Russia to commit additional resources to protecting logistics and infrastructure.

Carpenter, however, argues that the long-term strategic picture remains largely unchanged. "There is an ever-larger gap emerging between military realities and the gushing pro-Ukraine propaganda flowing from the Western news media," he writes, adding that, in his view, "Ukraine is not on the brink of winning its war against Russia."

While Carpenter's warning represents one expert's assessment rather than a consensus forecast, it highlights a concern that has shadowed the conflict since Russia's full-scale invasion began: that a prolonged war involving a nuclear-armed power carries escalation risks extending far beyond the battlefield.