Khamenei severely wounded, generals in command: Is Iran’s clerical regime quietly collapsing?

Iran’s ruling structure appears to be undergoing a major shift, with senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) taking control as new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remains severely injured and largely out of public view.

According to a report by The New York Times, access to Khamenei “is extremely difficult and limited now.” The younger Khamenei, 56, was critically wounded during Donald Trump’s February 28 airstrike, which killed his father and former Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He has not been seen or heard publicly since assuming office in March.

The report further cleared up his current condition: “He is surrounded mostly by a team of doctors and medical staff who are treating the injuries” he sustained in the airstrikes at the start of the war.

Severe injuries, surgeries and isolation

The report says Mojtaba Khamenei was “gravely wounded” but remains “sharp and engaged,” citing four senior Iranian officials familiar with his condition.

“One leg was operated on three times, and he is awaiting a prosthetic. He had surgery on one hand and is slowly regaining function. His face and lips have been burned severely, making it difficult for him to speak,” the report states. “Eventually, he will need plastic surgery.”

It further notes that senior officials and military chiefs do not visit him due to fears of being targeted by Israel. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, a heart surgeon by profession, has reportedly assisted with his medical care.

Communication with Khamenei is said to be taking place through handwritten messages passed via couriers, as he has refrained from issuing any video or audio statements that will make him look weak during his first public address as the supreme leader.

IRGC generals now leading key decisions

With Khamenei in hiding and his access tightly restricted, authority has reportedly shifted to IRGC commanders, who are now dominating wartime strategy and diplomatic decisions.

The report, based on interviews with current and former Iranian officials, IRGC members, a senior cleric, and people familiar with the leadership structure, suggests that generals have led major wartime decisions, including attacks on Israel, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and ceasefire and diplomatic talks with the United States.

Abdolreza Davari, a former adviser to former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, said the younger Khamenei is “managing the country as though he is the director of the board,” adding that “he relies heavily on the advice and guidance of the board members… The generals are the board members.”

The combination of Khamenei’s injuries, safety, and challenge of reaching him has reportedly weakened the central command structure of Iran’s leadership and allowed the IRGC to take a dominant operational role.