From ransom notes to suspect arrest: Where does FBI stand in Nancy Guthrie case after five months into investigation? Experts give new theory

Nancy Guthrie Update: After five months of intense investigation, hundreds of leads, and one arrest, authorities have still not managed to crack the case surrounding the abduction of Nancy Guthrie, the 84‑year‑old mother of NBC journalist and Today show host Savannah Guthrie. As authorities, including the FBI, continue to pursue the kidnapping case, Savannah and her family remain desperate for answers about what happened to their mother, Nancy.

Nancy went missing from her Tucson, Arizona, home late on January 31 or early February 1, 2026. Her family members reported her missing when she failed to attend church service. The case, already shrouded in mystery, drew renewed attention after fresh ransom notes surfaced. Tucson’s KOLD-TV reported receiving two notes, one demanding millions in Bitcoin for Guthrie’s safe return and another claiming she had died. Entertainment outlet TMZ also confirmed it had received a note.

Expert believes FBI has ‘firm control’

As the FBI investigation continues, Criminal defense lawyer and trial attorney Mark Geragos believes that the federal probe agency is pretty much in control of the investigation. “The FBI now, I think, has pretty firm control over the investigation, and they believe at this point that if it’s going to be solved, it’s going to be solved by somebody who I always call a confederate or somebody who’s going to give some information,” Geragos told NewsNation's “CUOMO.”

Criminologist Casey Jordan told NewsNation her gut feeling is that none of the ransom notes are genuine. “The No. 1 reason, and this is probably 90% of it, is that nothing, no communication is offered, any proof of life, proof of death, evidence of anything,” Jordan said.

“The bottom line is, whatever they’re mentioning that we know of is stuff they could have just learned online or picked up from AI and, you know, the satellite images of the scene and everything else. So, without any proof of life or death, there is no reason to believe that they’re real. But I agree with Mark, (the FBI) is just kind of hedging their bets,” she added.

Ransom notes, FBI probe and the arrest

The FBI has dismissed a few ransom notes that appeared following Nancy’s disappearance as mere extortion attempts. However, the agency stated on Wednesday that it is still reviewing others, which may prove to be legitimate. The FBI has not disclosed the exact number of ransom notes received, stating only that there have been “several.”

“The FBI and its task force partners have received several ransom notes over the course of this investigation. Some have been deemed to be extortion attempts without legitimacy. Other ransom demands may potentially be legitimate and are still being investigated as such. This case continues to be investigated as a kidnapping for ransom case. The FBI has and will continue to offer all assistance possible in the investigation—however, local authorities remain the lead,” the statement read.

A significant development surfaced in the case when a California man admitted guilt to sending fake ransom notes connected to the alleged abduction. Derrick Callella, 42, of Hawthorne, California, entered a guilty plea to two counts of Harassment Using a Telecommunication Device, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Arizona announced on Thursday, July 2, 2026.