A 2026 Pew survey asked 3,554 US adults the chances of a woman becoming President - 37% said it’s unlikely in their lifetime, up from 26% in 2023; even among those who strongly want one, 30% doubt it

After Kamala Harris’ unsuccessful bid for the White House in 2024, a growing share of Americans say they do not expect the United States to elect a woman as president during their lifetime, a new Pew Research Center survey has found.

The share of Americans who say it is not too or not at all likely that a woman will become president in their lifetime has risen to 37% in 2026, up from 26% in 2023. At the same time, those who consider a woman's presidency extremely or very likely have fallen from 25% to 17%.

The findings come from a Pew Research Center survey of 3,554 US adults conducted July 6-12, 2026, among members of its American Trends Panel, the organization’s primary source of survey data for US public opinion research.

Fewer Americans think a woman presidency is highly likely

While 37% now say a woman becoming president in their lifetime is not too or not at all likely, 44% describe it as somewhat likely. The share saying a woman's presidency is extremely or very likely has dropped eight percentage points since 2023, from 25% to 17%.

The shift indicates that Americans have become more skeptical about the prospect of a woman reaching the White House, even though the country has previously elected its first woman vice president.

Men and women are similarly skeptical

The skepticism is not confined to one gender or political party. Pew found that relatively few men and women, Democrats and Republicans alike, believe it is extremely or very likely that a woman will be president during their lifetime. However, Democrats and Republicans differ substantially when asked whether electing a woman president is personally important to them.

Democrats are far more likely to say it matters

About three-in-ten Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say it is extremely or very important to them personally that the US elects a woman president in their lifetime. Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, that figure is just 5%.

Overall, 66% of Americans say electing a woman president is either not important to them or that the president's gender does not matter. Another 16% say it is somewhat important.

Notably, the overall share saying electing a woman president is extremely or very important has not changed since 2023, remaining at 18%.

Democratic women show the strongest support

The largest partisan and gender gaps appear among Democratic respondents. Thirty-seven percent of Democratic women say it is extremely or very important to them that a woman becomes president in their lifetime, compared with 22% of Democratic men.

Among Republicans, the figures are considerably lower: 6% of Republican women and 3% of Republican men say electing a woman president is highly important to them.

Despite these differences, majorities across both genders say the issue is not personally important to them or that the president's gender does not matter. That includes 60% of women and 73% of men.

Even those who want a woman president are not convinced it will happen

The survey also highlights a gap between wanting a woman president and believing one will actually be elected. Among Americans who say it is extremely or very important to them that a woman becomes president, only 30% say it is extremely or very likely to happen during their lifetime.

Another 40% consider it somewhat likely, while 30% say it is not too or not at all likely. In other words, even among people who strongly value the prospect of a woman president, many remain uncertain that it will happen.