Robots, drones could slash global food delivery costs to $1 per order, Barclays says

Autonomous food delivery robots and drones could cut costs by several dollars to as low as $1 per order, a shift that could unlock billions of dollars in profits for the global food delivery industry, Barclays said on Wednesday.

Global platforms such as DoorDash are partnering with ‌autonomous delivery ⁠operators ⁠primarily through sidewalk delivery robots (SDRs) and drones to enhance their capabilities, which Barclays said signals a "clear strategic shift."

Autonomous delivery costs currently range from about $5 to $7 ​per order drop in early adoption markets with high labour costs, the British brokerage said, which is $3 to $4 cheaper than traditional rider ​delivery.


In the long term, autonomous delivery ⁠costs could decrease ‌to $1 per drop, implying potential savings of $8 ​to $9, compared ​with current rider deliveries in higher-labour-cost regions.

Assuming about $4 ⁠cost savings per drop at long-term penetration levels, Barclays ​forecasts autonomous delivery could unlock about $16 billion in ​an annual global profitability pool for food delivery platforms.

Autonomous delivery penetration is currently at a nascent stage, with less than 1% of the global food delivery orders, Barclays estimates.

However, the brokerage expects it to rise to about 2% by the end ‌of the decade and jump to roughly 10% by 2035.

Barclays expects DoorDash and Chinese food delivery leader ​Meituan to be ​near-term beneficiaries, given ⁠early commercial deployments, platform-level investment and exposure to higher labour costs that could be mitigated via automation.

It also projects Uber to be ​well-positioned, while it bets on Dutch technology investor Prosus to be a long-term beneficiary.

Delivery Hero, its Middle East unit, Talabat, and Southeast Asia's Grab are positioned as medium- to longer-term beneficiaries, Barclays said, with automation developments being pilot-led and small.