OpenAI’s compute rental outgo could see $207 billion shortfall, HSBC estimates

OpenAI could fall short of its compute rent requirements even if it maintains its current growth trajectory, according to the latest estimates by HSBC analysts for the artificial intelligence (AI) major.

The US software and services team at the multinational bank has updated its OpenAI model to factor in the $250 billion of rented cloud compute from Microsoft announced late in October, and another $38 billion from Amazon, finalised the week after. These two deals would add four gigawatts to OpenAI’s total contracted compute capacity, bringing its total to 36 GW. However, only a third of this power is expected to come online by the end of this decade.

Revenue and expenses


By certain estimates, OpenAI has an annual revenue of $13 billion, with 5% of the current user base opting for one of its paid subscription plans.

In the latest financial model, HSBC estimates the company will earn from advertising, agentic AI, and the AI hardware Jony Ive is working on. It pegs consumer AI revenue at $129 billion by 2030, with $87 billion coming from search and $24 billion from advertising. Enterprise AI revenue could be $386 billion in the same period.

The Sam Altman-led company will likely generate free cash flow of $282 billion during this period, per HSBC estimates.

Nvidia’s promised cash injections and the disposal of AMD shares can bring in another $26 billion. In addition, $24 billion of undrawn debt and equity facilities, and $17.5 billion of available liquidity as of mid-2025 are also on its books.

Meanwhile, OpenAI could face a rental bill of $702 billion by 2030, and $1.4 trillion by 2033. This could leave a $207 billion hole in its finances, HSBC estimates.

Way ahead

Every 500 million users OpenAI adds will add around $36 billion to its cumulative revenue between now and 2030, HSBC said. Converting 20% of them to paid subscribers can lead to an additional $194 billion windfall during this period, it added.

Notably, this model does not factor in the eventuality of OpenAI achieving artificial general intelligence, the next big thing every AI company is gunning for.

If the revenue doesn’t exceed expectations and investors turn cautious, OpenAI might have to walk away from some of its data centre commitments, HSBC pointed out.

Also Read: Sam Altman acknowledges ‘economic headwinds’ for OpenAI as Google’s AI gains pace