Major new US regulation on AI unlikely despite rising political focus: UBS Report

Major new regulations on Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the United States are unlikely to emerge despite the technology becoming a central issue in the country's midterm elections, according to a report by UBS.

The report said a light-touch approach to AI regulation is likely to continue, partly because of the expectations that AI will provide a long-term boost to the US economy through higher economic growth and productivity.

"AI has become one of the central issues of the mid-term elections but is unlikely to sway the ultimate outcome, which should result in the Democrats retaking the House and possibly the Senate," the report stated.


UBS said the midterm elections are unlikely to result in significant new AI regulations, suggesting the existing approach to regulating the technology could largely continue.

"Notable new regulations are unlikely to materialise because of the midterms," the report said.

The report linked this outlook partly to the economic expectations surrounding AI. It said the technology is expected to play an important role in supporting long-term US economic growth, making a light-touch regulatory approach more likely to persist.

"A light touch to regulation is likely to persist, in part because much is riding on AI providing a long-term boost to the US economy via higher disinflationary growth," UBS stated.

The report also highlighted AI's growing contribution to the US economy through investment in infrastructure. Capital expenditure by major cloud computing companies, known as hyperscalers, is projected to reach nearly 2 per cent of US gross domestic product in 2026.

UBS estimated that AI investment and the positive wealth effect on consumption from rising equity prices together accounted for around 100 basis points of US economic growth in the first half of 2026, when the economy grew by 2.4 per cent.

The debate over AI regulation has intensified as leading developers, including OpenAI and Anthropic, have called for stronger safety measures and oversight of advanced AI systems.

However, US President Donald Trump has prioritised maintaining American leadership in AI and reducing regulatory barriers to innovation.

In October 2026, Trump announced a voluntary agreement with six major technology companies, including OpenAI and Anthropic, aimed at addressing concerns about AI safety.

The agreement focuses on companies adopting internal safety controls, monitoring systems and independent assessments, but does not impose legally enforceable regulatory requirements.

The approach reflects the administration's effort to address safety concerns without introducing restrictions that could slow AI development.

While AI has become a significant issue in political debate, UBS expects the economic importance of the technology to remain a key consideration in the regulatory environment.

The report also noted some evidence from bond markets suggesting that developments in AI models correlate with lower interest rates, which it described as a positive sign for the technology's potential economic implications.