Citrini Research flags AI ‘ghost GDP’ risk, calls for taxing windfall gains amid job disruption

Artificial intelligence could inflate headline economic growth while masking deep labour disruption, according to a new report by Citrini Research.

Speaking to Bloomberg, co-author Alap Shah, chief investment officer at Lotus Technology Management, said governments should consider taxing incremental or windfall gains from AI to offset job losses triggered by automation.

The core warning from the research firm is a potential “ghost GDP” scenario where AI boosts productivity and corporate profits, lifting output on paper, even as wage growth and employment weaken beneath the surface.


The report argues that without policy intervention, gains could accrue disproportionately to capital, widening inequality and straining fiscal systems.

Shah added that the market reaction to the report was “definitely larger than we expected,” underscoring investor sensitivity to second-order AI effects.

Unlike earlier AI tools that augmented productivity, agentic systems can autonomously handle workflows across coding, legal documentation, research, customer service and even financial analysis. That shift, Shah argues, could compress labour demand across white-collar sectors far faster than markets currently anticipate.

Shah suggested governments may eventually need to tax incremental or windfall gains from AI to cushion labour displacement.

Agentic AI could be the biggest productivity unlock in decades but also the fastest labour substitution cycle in modern economic history.