AI may replace only 5% of human work over next decade, says Nobel laureate Acemoglu

Artificial intelligence may replace only about 5 per cent of the work currently done by humans over the next decade, Nobel laureate Daron Acemoglu has predicted, arguing that AI development should focus more on improving workers' capabilities than replacing them.

Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman shared the assessment in a post on X while introducing the first issue of The Humanist Review published in July 2026, a magazine published by Microsoft AI exploring the future of artificial intelligence.

"We shouldn't expect much more than about 5% of what humans do to be replaced by AI," he said, citing Acemoglu's prediction.


Acemoglu's broader argument is that AI should be developed to complement human workers rather than replicate or replace them. "We need to stop building AI to replace people, and start building it to make them better at their jobs," Suleyman said, outlining the economist's view.

The post said 52 per cent of Americans are worried about AI's impact on their jobs, but argued that the concern is "overblown" and is influencing how AI is being developed.

It also suggested that the economic impact of AI could be more gradual than some expectations. "AI isn't in the productivity statistics yet. Most firms using it aren't seeing real gains. Expect roughly 1.5% added to GDP over 10 years, not a revolution," the post said.

He further compared the adoption of AI with the spread of electricity, noting that power stations were established in New York and London by 1881, but only about half of factories and homes were using electricity by the 1920s. AI adoption could be even slower as companies need to reorganise their operations around the technology.

The post also cautioned against full automation even when AI systems become highly accurate. "Even 99% accuracy isn't enough for full automation. The last 1% is the hard part," it said.

He further said the focus should be on "pro-worker AI," suggesting tools that make people better at their jobs, adding that "they're buildable today."

The post also flagged policy and market concerns, saying, "The US taxes labor at over 25% and capital at close to zero, which effectively subsidizes automation."

It further said the seven largest technology companies account for 60 per cent of the Nasdaq, arguing that "concentration crowds out new ideas."