AI disruption could displace 300 million jobs globally over the next decade: Goldman Sachs

Artificial intelligence (AI) could disrupt up to 300 million jobs worldwide in the coming years, Goldman Sachs warned in its latest outlook on the future of work, expecting that about 6-7% of workers could be displaced as companies adopt the technology at scale.

A majority of this transition will happen within the next 10 years, the investment bank said, a period during which global labour markets will be reshaped by automation and rising demand for new technical professions. Goldman’s economists estimate a modest 0.6 percentage point increase in unemployment during this time, noting that a faster wave of adoption could lead to “much larger” economic disruptions.

“You can already see AI’s impact in the tech sector, where employment as a share of the total economy has fallen below its long-term trend,” said Joseph Briggs, co-head of the global economics team at Goldman Sachs Research. The US, he noted, has seen the earliest effects, with pockets of displacement in not only tech but also knowledge and creative fields such as management consulting, customer support, and design.


Despite visible churn, Briggs said the overall US labour market is yet to register “significant AI-led changes”. The real inflection, he added, is coming, especially as AI goes beyond white-collar roles.

In the US alone, Goldman estimates that AI could automate tasks accounting for one-fourth of all work hours, highlighting its potential to reshape nearly every occupation.

Not all bad news

On the flip side, the report also points to a rise in demand for skilled trades that support the AI economy, such as construction workers, electricians, and engineers.

“AI is intensifying the need for technical and infrastructure talent,” the report quotes another Goldman researcher Evan Tylenda as saying. The US will need an estimated 500,000 additional workers by 2030 to meet rising electricity demand and data center growth. Hiring for electrical and HVAC contractors has already surged, with construction jobs linked to data center projects increasing by 216,000 since 2022.