Vietnam trade beats estimates as buyers race Trump tariffs

Vietnam’s exports jumped more than expected in July, with buyers racing to avoid a 20% tariff on the country’s exports to the US set to take effect on Aug. 7.

Exports rose 16% in July from a year earlier to $42.3 billion, the statistics office said in a statement, beating expectations of 14% growth. Imports rose 17.8% in the period to $40 billion, more than the 15.2% forecast. The trade surplus was $2.27 billion, versus $2.83 billion released in June.

The Southeast Asian nation, an export powerhouse that sells everything from coffee and clothing to engine parts, has been shipping more goods this year to buyers aiming to avoid US President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The country was initially threatened with a 46% import levy, though that has been lowered to 20%, just one percentage point more than for neighbors Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand.


“Vietnam posted impressive export figures in July, mostly because companies were rushing to ship goods to the US ahead of the Trump tariffs,” said Tran Tuan Minh, chief executive officer of TVI, a Hanoi-based equity research and investment firm. “We expect exports to slow significantly later this year, mainly due to the 20% tariffs and especially the 40% rate on transshipments, which still remains quite unclear at this point.”

The government said in a statement Wednesday that trade negotiators are working to “actively continue” talks with Washington. It also reiterated plans to diversify its markets, aiming for trade agreements with the Middle East and India, while increasing domestic consumption of Vietnamese goods.

Exports to the US rose 26% in July from a year earlier to $14.2 billion, according to separate customs data released Wednesday. Imports from China increased 30.5% to about $16.7 billion in July.

Net exports to the US account for roughly a fifth of Vietnam’s gross domestic product, and the tariffs pose a threat to factories which have boomed as companies have diversified their supply chains from China.

The data was generally positive, with consumer prices rising 3.19% on year, slower than the 3.40% economist estimate and the 3.57% pace of June. Industrial production rose 8.5% on year, and 0.5% compared with June.

Commodity exports also gained, with coffee exports rising to 103,000 tons, a 34.6% rise on a year earlier.

The economy has been powering along in 2025, with gross domestic product rising 7.96% in the April-June period from a year earlier, according to data released last month. The government is aiming for 8% growth in 2025, though it’s unclear whether the new US tariffs will derail that push.