India coffee output to miss forecast after below-normal rains

India’s coffee output is likely to fall short of an earlier forecast as below-normal rains during the four-month monsoon season took a toll on crops, according to the Coffee Board.

Production is expected to reach about 380,000 metric tons in the year ending March, more than 5% below the board’s previous estimate, M.J. Dinesh, chairman of the state-run agency, said in an interview.

The Coffee Board, which operates under the Commerce Ministry, had earlier forecast a total of more than 400,000 tons. India exports about 70% of the coffee it produces and 70% of its output is robusta beans, making any shortfall a concern for global buyers. Karnataka, the southern state that accounts for the bulk of the country’s production, is particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in rainfall.


A smaller harvest could tighten supplies available for export, forcing shippers to pay more for beans and potentially eroding India’s competitiveness in price-sensitive markets. The country is Asia’s third-largest producer of coffee.

Globally, however, supplies are showing signs of improving. Citi Research expects “exceptionally strong” exports from top grower Brazil and ample robusta supplies from Vietnam to rebuild inventories and pressure prices. The bank cut its three-month and 12-month arabica price forecasts.

The outlook for India’s 2027-28 coffee crop could be more challenging following the weak monsoon and prolonged dry spells, though it is too early to quantify the potential impact, Dinesh said. Winter rainfall will be critical in determining the size of the next harvest and could offer some relief to plantations, he said.