Global rice production set to fall for first time in decade

Global rice production is set to decline for the first time in a decade, tightening supplies of one of the world’s major food staples.
Output in the coming 2026-27 season is seen at about 538 million tons, the first decrease in 11 years, the United States Department of Agriculture said in a global crop report on Tuesday. The largest declines are seen in India, Myanmar and the US, where the harvest is seen falling 15% from last year as farmers plant less. Combined with record consumption and trade, that will curb global stockpiles.

While the USDA didn’t elaborate on the reason, the fall comes as a spike in fertilizer and energy costs — driven by the war in Iran — are disrupting operations for farmers in Asia. Some growers are considering skipping plantings of the new crop, which is known for being fertilizer-intensive grain.

In addition, the crop in India, the world’s top grower, could be hit by a lower-than-average monsoon. The annual rains, which start around June, are expected to be curbed by the looming El Niño weather pattern. The country’s exports are still expected to remain strong, while shipments from the US will shrink, the USDA said.


Rice makes up a major part of diets across Asia, in particular. Smaller supplies risk raising consumer prices, which could feed into broader inflation, with nations including the Philippines already seeing an uptick.

At the wholesale level, Thai white rice, a benchmark in Asia, has climbed about 15% since late March. Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade jumped 8% last week, the most in two years. A rice index from the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization has also picked up, as the war-induced rise in energy prices pushes up production and marketing costs in most exporting countries.