China’s cotton crop seen shrinking on freeze and smaller area

Cotton production in top grower China could decline this year after frigid weather delayed sowing and hurt plants in some areas, and acreage dropped as some farmers followed government advice and switched to grain.

The harvest may fall by as much as 1 million tons from last year, according to Guo Chao, the general manager of Hebei Xingyu Textile Material Co., a major cotton trader and processor. If realised, that would represent a decline of more than 15% from production of about 6 million tons in 2022.

China is the world’s biggest textile producer and one of the largest cotton importers. Any shortfall in production could potentially boost purchases of foreign cotton, but that may be countered by a lacklustre outlook for demand as exporters of textile products grapple with a slowing global economy.

Unseasonably cold weather damaged the cotton crop in the main producing region of Xinjiang, just as local governments were encouraging farmers to switch to growing grains under a nationwide drive to bolster food security.

Cotton farmers in some areas were told to plant grain on as much as 10% of their land, according to Mysteel, a commodity consultancy in China, and the company is predicting a 10% drop in cotton acreage from last year.

Still, the crop has time to recover. Sunnier and warmer conditions this week may improve the outlook, though the long-term market trend is firm, Guo said at a conference Friday. Planting normally starts at the beginning of April, and according to state television, almost 90% of the Xinjiang crop has been sown.

Extreme weather from drought to cold in the past few weeks has roiled everything from apples to rubber and cotton in China. Temperatures were so low in the cotton areas that emerging crops were damaged, and hailstorms only worsened the impact, traders and analysts said.