Charting the global economy: Inflationary pressures mount in US

Inflationary pressures are mounting in the US, with fresh consumer and wholesale price data indicating costlier fuel is filtering through into higher prices for other goods and services.

A broad upswing in consumer prices last month helps reinforce expectations for additional Federal Reserve interest-rate increases in the months ahead. Services prices excluding energy and rents registered a steep advance for a second month.

Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy, markets and geopolitics:

US

The energy shock is starting to spill across the US economy as businesses pass along rising costs, complicating the Fed’s task of stabilizing inflation. Two reports this week showed sharp price increases last month in categories including airfares, delivery services and trucking as wars overseas pushed oil prices higher. The grocery aisle has so far largely been spared, but economists see upside risks to food prices down the line as well.

ExxonMobil Holdings Corp. is the latest oil supermajor to signal soaring third-quarter refining profits as wars in the Persian Gulf and Russia crippled fuel-making facilities. Higher refining margins added about $4.5 billion to ExxonMobil’s earnings, the company said in a preliminary earnings statement on Friday. That’s on top of the $4.1 billion the company made from refining in the second quarter.

Europe

Worries about France’s finances, now centered on the haggling over the budget, are set to drag on into the 2027 presidential election and beyond. With no clear idea of the way out, speculation is swirling about where this all ends. For Europe, it’s a nightmare scenario. Of particular concern are signs of spillover to other countries’ debt, evoking the specter of contagion — a term synonymous with the Greek debt crisis that almost ripped the euro area apart 15 years ago.

Germany will press the European Union to quickly place quotas on additional sectors of goods being imported from China, replicating a cap the bloc is planning to impose on hybrid vehicles. Germany will seek EU safeguard measures to limit the import of goods from additional sectors, including chemicals, mechanical engineering and potentially pharmaceuticals, according to people familiar with the matter.

Europe has spent decades shutting down coal-fired plants to combat global warming. Now the ones still left are experiencing an unexpected windfall. Soaring natural gas prices have transformed the economics of coal plants just as cold weather pushes up demand and fading solar output leaves Europe needing more conventional generation.

Asia

China’s export growth surged the most since February to drive global imbalances to new highs, with its trade surplus this year on track to exceed the $1.2 trillion record set in 2025. Shipments abroad soared 36% last month from a year earlier and imports jumped 31%, data released by China’s General Administration of Customs showed.

The weakest monsoon since 2015 has curbed hydropower output, while hotter-than-normal weather has buoyed demand for air conditioning and farm irrigation. That’s seen coal-fired power stations, which supply about two-thirds of India’s electricity, rapidly burn through their inventories.

Emerging Markets

Indonesian stocks suffered their worst rout in nearly three decades after MSCI Inc. warned the country’s emerging-market status was in jeopardy, raising the prospect of its removal from global indexes and stoking fears of foreign capital flight. The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index tumbled nearly 12%, its biggest one-day decline since January 1998, in a selloff that triggered a 30-minute trading halt on Friday.

Uganda’s central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by the most in 15 years at an emergency meeting to defend the shilling, after it fell to a record low. The East African nation’s currency on Tuesday stood at its weakest level since Bloomberg began tracking it in 1993 before paring losses. The shilling extended gains after Wednesday’s rate hike.

World

Global central banks are likely to head into 2027 with even tighter monetary-policy settings to keep inflation at bay. A year that began with the prospect of interest rates drifting lower across major economies looks set to conclude with a very different cycle crystallizing as officials increasingly act to tame consumer prices, according to Bloomberg Economics.

Brazil economic activity rose modestly in August, underscoring the loss of momentum in Latin America’s biggest economy as voters prepare to choose their next president.

El Niño is back and shaping up to be the most powerful on record. Heat and drought can intensify in some regions, while rainfall and flooding increase in others. The resulting disruption to crop and energy markets risks pushing up inflation and slowing economic growth.