Charting the global economy: Fed turns hawkish, China demand weakens

(Bloomberg) --Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh presided over his first policy meeting since taking the helm of the US central bank, vowing to restore price stability as officials signaled growing support for interest-rate hikes this year.
Meanwhile a key gauge of underlying euro-area price pressures was stronger than initially reported, supporting European Central Bank policymakers’ concerns about lingering inflation risks from the conflict in the Middle East.

Switzerland lost its position as the world’s most competitive economy to Singapore, slipping to third place in a global ranking.


Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy, markets and geopolitics:

US

Warsh vowed to restore price stability and bring changes at the Fed. He’s creating five task forces studying various aspects of the way the US central bank operates, including its public communications and reliance on existing data sources. The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep its benchmark rate steady, but half of the policymakers are penciling in at least one rate hike this year amid persistent inflation.

US consumers ramped up spending in May across a broad range of retailers, signaling consumer spending strengthened heading into the summer even as average gasoline prices rose to the highest level in almost four years. The advance in retail spending marked a fourth straight month of increases.

US manufacturing production stalled in May after four months of gains as a drop in chemical and petroleum output masked ongoing strength in categories tied to the data center boom. Factory output was little changed last month after an upwardly revised advance in April.

Europe

A key gauge of underlying euro-area price pressures accelerated to 2.6% in May, stronger than initially reported. That supports ECB policymakers’ concerns about lingering inflation risks from the conflict in the Middle East. Headline inflation was confirmed at 3.2%.

The Bank of England held rates at 3.75%, even while two of the nine policymakers voted for an immediate quarter-point hike over concerns of persistent inflation.

The Swiss National Bank warned investors that a Middle East peace deal hasn’t altered its state of readiness to sell the franc if such a stance is required. Policymakers kept the rate at zero and restated their willingness to intervene in the currency.

Asia

China’s two-speed economy — roaring exports and whimpering demand at home — was on full display when the latest data for May dropped. Retail sales declined 0.6% from a year ago, posting the first fall since the reopening from Covid lockdowns in late 2022. By contrast, industrial production climbed 4.5% as high-tech manufacturing soared 15% in terms of value added in May from a year ago. Fixed-asset investment also shrank.

Japan’s trade balance swung to a deficit for the first time in four months as the weak yen inflated the value of imports, even as volumes fell. The trade balance flipped to a ¥378.6 billion ($2.36 billion) deficit in May on an unadjusted basis. Analysts had forecast a ¥547.6 billion deficit.

The Bank of Japan raised borrowing costs to the highest since 1995 and pledged more hikes to come, fueling speculation of another move before the end of the year.

Emerging Markets

Brazil’s central bank cut its key rate by a quarter-point for a third straight meeting while flagging a worsening inflation outlook, prompting many economists to bet its easing cycle may be halted as soon as August.

The war between Iran, Israel and the US disrupted global trade and rattled oil markets. It also upended life on the islands at the center of the conflict.

World

In addition to the holds in the US, UK and Switzerland, central banks in Armenia, Australia, Botswana, Chile, Georgia, Norway, Pakistan, Sweden, Taiwan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan all kept rates steady. Along with Japan, officials in the Czech Republic, Indonesia, Namibia and the Philippines all hiked. And Russia and Zimbabwe joined Brazil in lowering borrowing costs.

Switzerland lost its position as the world’s most competitive economy to Singapore, slipping to third place in the ranking as high US trade tariffs and a strong Swiss franc hurt investment flows. While Switzerland remained the highest-ranked European nation, it was also leapfrogged by Hong Kong in the 2026 IMD World Competitiveness Ranking. Business efficiency was key to Singapore rebounding to first place, a position it last held in 2024.