Why risk strategy will define India Inc’s next decade

Indian businesses are operating in an “Age of Competition,” facing a “poly-crisis” marked by interconnected risks ranging from geoeconomic tensions and artificial intelligence (AI)-led disruptions to more frequent climatic extremes. Multiple global risk assessments and industry outlooks indicate that businesses are entering a prolonged period of heightened uncertainty and volatility. For India’s $4 trillion economy, projected to grow 7% in FY27, the challenge is to strengthen risk governance by blending global risk foresight with effective domestic action.

Converging global and domestic risks
Global risks cascade into stark business realities for Indian firms. The geoeconomic confrontation continues to pose a significant short-term threat, weaponising trade and technology amid substantial FPI (foreign portfolio investment) outflows and ongoing trade tensions. Cybersecurity breaches worry 51% of India Inc. leaders, heightened by fintech growth alongside significant malware detections. Over the long term, extreme weather events are emerging as one of the most significant risks, directly threatening supply chains, manufacturing hubs, and urban infrastructure investments.


Domestically, these pressures compound through talent wars, where workplace flexibility has become a key retention factor amid widening skill gaps, rising living costs that squeeze consumer spending, and a gig economy of 1.2 million workers needing urgent policy overhaul. Inequality emerges as the most interconnected risk globally, fuelling India’s recovery where wealth concentration clashes with inflation pressures.

Traditional siloed risk management fails against this interconnected web; businesses urgently need integrated enterprise risk management (ERM) frameworks.

The current geopolitical environment further intensifies this risk landscape. Ongoing conflicts such as Russia-Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East, and strategic competition in other markets are increasingly shaping global trade flows, energy markets, and technology ecosystems. For India, these developments translate into heightened volatility across supply chains, shipping corridors, energy prices, and cross-border capital flows.

The risk is no longer limited to direct conflict zones; it manifests through sanctions, export controls, digital infrastructure vulnerabilities, and disruptions to critical maritime routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz. For corporate boards, geopolitical intelligence is, therefore, no longer optional; it must become a core component of enterprise risk strategy and scenario planning.

Scenario analysis as a tool
Structured scenario analysis is an important tool for organisations, enabling them to model multiple plausible futures across geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, climate risks, and technological shifts. Rather than relying on linear forecasts, scenario analysis allows organisations to stress-test their strategies against divergent outcomes, such as prolonged trade conflicts, energy price shocks, cyber incidents, or extreme weather events.

This approach equips businesses to identify early warning signals, quantify potential financial and operational impacts, and build contingency plans. It also strengthens capital allocation decisions by linking risk scenarios to investment priorities, whether in supply chain diversification, cybersecurity infrastructure, or workforce reskilling.

At a systemic level, embedding scenario analysis enables cross-sector alignment on emerging threats, ensuring that industries are not preparing in isolation but responding to shared risks with coordinated strategies. In an environment defined by volatility, this shift from prediction to preparedness will be critical in building long-term resilience and competitive advantage.

Business Resilience Roadmap
Indian companies can immediately operationalise this vision through two integrated steps. First, deploy comprehensive ERM frameworks that break down silos and enable true poly-crisis navigation across functions. Second, elevate chief risk officers to board-level roles with clear KPIs tracking cybersecurity preparedness, talent retention metrics, and ESG performance.

By converting global risk signals into actionable growth edges, Indian businesses can not only safeguard their operations but also position the nation itself as a global resilience leader.

Sanjay Kedia is CEO & President of Marsh India. Views are personal