Reform measures, Greece to dominate markets this week: Manish Sonthalia, Motilal Oswal AMC-PMS
Any positive developments from Delhi will be countered by negative developments in Europe. So, it will be a range-bound movement.
In an interview with ET Now, Manish Sonthalia, VP & Fund Manager, Motilal Oswal AMC-PMS, gives his views on the markets. Excerpts:
ET Now: To your mind, what will dominate the Indian markets this week: earnings, Europe, crude or news flow from the Centre?
Manish Sonthalia: It would be the news flow coming out of the Centre as well as what happens with Greece. These are two most important things. The countdown for the news to come out from Delhi has begun. You have a 15 to 30-day window, out of which at least the fuel price hike part should be coming.
At the same time there are now funding issues with Greece which may be reaching their final stage. The world would be bracing for Greece’s exit out of Europe. So, any positive developments coming out of Delhi would be countered by negative developments coming out of Europe. The net impact would be seen on the markets on both sides. So, it would be by and large a range-bound movement. May be 5050-5100 all the way up to 5400. That is the broad range I am looking at.
ET Now: But do you think it is going to be a tough task for the government to convince allies on key reforms?
Of course, in retail FDI, there are some rumblings out of allies which are coming. It can wait for some more time. But fuel price hike is urgently required. If that was to come, it will affect the market, at least in the short term.
ET Now: So, at a time when the global environment is uncertain and news flow from the Centre is also not very clear, what is the best way to make money in this market?
Manish Sonthalia: It is a risk on-risk off trade and markets are now gyrating towards the risk-off trade. So you have the likes of pharmaceuticals, defensives etc. which are coming back to the forefront irrespective of high valuations. You do need money to be parked somewhere and these will be the areas where money would tend to be parked.
ET Now: So what is it that you have made of Reliance’s earnings? Does it seem like the buyback price of Rs 700 or an average is going to act as a flow for the stock?
Manish Sonthalia: Some of these large caps have now entered a phase where irrespective of bad news, there does not seem to be too much of selling happening. We have seen that in the case of Infosys, where numbers were not good at all, in fact they were quite bad and the guidance was very bad. Still you did not manage to break the stock price below 2200.
Similar is the case with Reliance, where valuations are becoming very supportive, irrespective of what came out of the results. In a way the results are in line. But there were some disappointments in the petchem side where margins are quite low at 8% EBIT margins.
But the outlook on E&P for the next three-four years provided by them is quite good. The ball now lies in the government’s court as to what sort of approvals the company gets because they have said that the FDV plans etc would be filed on the second quarter and the third quarter of fiscal 2013.
The company says that if the approvals were to come about expeditially, then you will see a ramping up of KG D6 volumes to 60 mmcmd. So, you are looking at a company with 11%-12% ROE, currently trading at 10-11 PE irrespective, of all the bad news coming out of KG D6.
Similar is the case with Maruti. With all the negatives coming in, I do not think you should see the stock price collapsing below Rs 1000 in any case.
May be some of these large caps have now become classic value stocks. If you were to buy into them, you would need some patience to make some decent money in the medium to long term. Downside comfort is clearly coming out in many of these large cap names.
ET Now: So can I read in between lines here, can I safely assume that at these levels you are buying Maruti and Reliance?
ET Now: You also have a large exposure to ITC. At what price point do you think you would want to trim your exposure to ITC?
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