Bullish on the market in the long term: Biren Vakil, Paradigm Commodity Advisors

Biren Vakil, Commodity Consultant, Paradigm Commodity Advisors, in an interview with ET Now, gives his commodity outlook



With the kind of moves that you are seeing, the kind of concerns that the Europe still has on, would you rather buy or sell gold at these current levels?

Market is in a very volatile and choppy. It continued to oscillate between 1770-1880. As long as market stay below 1880, I would avoid to be long side of the market, as well I do not short the metal. My long-term view is still bullish and I expect price to hold above 2000 but that is beyond November.

As of now are you looking at levels like 1790-1760 on the lower side? Do you think that much correction could come in?

Because of Euro concern and temporary risk reversal, I see the risk is towards downside because of a strong rally in dollar.


How about the energy pack? How would you want to trade crude now?

This is the most vulnerable commodity among commodity pack. If dollar rally is to continue and if we see any debacle in Euro, a large default say Greece default or Italy or French downgrade, then the crude could go 60-65 but I would go short on crude around 4330.

Agro commodities now, we have seen soya bean prices continue to show some kind of a support, do you think the edible oil pack would take support from that one?

Edible oil price would remain under pressure due to Indonesian CPO issue but soya seed prices may get some relief rally because of water logging in certain pockets. I also see current crop estimates are overly optimistic.

How would you look at the cotton prices now?

This is the only commodity in which I see a conviction in to be long. I see a strong rally or a medium term, so I would buy at around Rs 760-770, upside objective Rs 830-850 with a stop of Rs 730-732.