Budget 2012-13: Budget is just another day when you look at the charts: Atul Suri, trader

Atul Suri, a trader in a chat with ET Now, gives his expectations from Budget 2012-13. Excerpts:-


ET Now: How are you positioned ahead of the budget, long, short?

Atul Suri: We are very interestingly positioned.

ET Now: Define interestingly for us?

Atul Suri: Budget is a day of course but there is life before and after the budget, so I would like to look at things. It is more of just another day when you look at the charts. If you look at it, we have spoken about it before. A 6300 market came down to around 4500-4600 almost a 12-13 month downtrend, which I feel has been snapped up. We are in the beginning or we have started a bull market. The rally that started in mid-December came to around what 5630 or thereabouts, corrected to 5170 and where we are positioned right now around 5280 or 5400, it is somewhere exactly about 4% from both these bands, so the points that I would look at is that do we take out 5630 and make a higher top or do we go below 5170 and make a lower bottom? Why I think 5170 is more important for a day like today is essentially that we are in an uptrend. We do not want something that spoils the lovely move that we are.

We have excellent international foreign flows, which is really propelling the market right now but they should not be nothing. I am okay with the non event also because I do feel that we are in an uptrend unless and until something really unforeseen happens and we crack 5170, that’s where I would be worried, that’s the point I am looking at today. In case it is a non-event, it stays around but the way global markets are poised, the way the flows are, we would head higher. In case there are some positive surprises. We go beyond 5630 in the next few days, that’s going to be a bonus, so my bias is positive. My bias is long but the point that I would look at is 5170 on the downside. I just keep my fingers crossed and hope that that does not get violated, global flows would take care of other things, so global markets would take care of other things.

ET Now: So if we go below 5170, would you advise our viewers that they should not even think and they should just get out of the market?

Atul Suri: I think so. It would be a very difficult task for the market, then again to recover, to form basis. These things take time and then really again start another upmove, so I would say that creation of a lower bottom in an upmove is never a good news and 5170 is my point where I would sort of have a different thought process.

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