Welcome to more useful monsoon forecasts

There’s noticeable strategy revamp in monsoon forecasting. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is modifying its two-stage prognosis of the monsoon season (June-September) to put out granular data for each of the four months for the first time. So, after its early forecast in April for a ‘normal’ monsoon, IMD has now come out with its big picture probabilistic forecast for the rainy season as a whole — which, again, is ‘most likely to be normal’ — and also for June.

The projection is that rainfall during the southwest monsoon 2021 for the country as a whole is ‘likely to be’ 101% of the long period average (LPA). Note that for the period 1961-2010, average annual precipitation nationwide is 88 cm. Further, during June-September, while the monsoon is expected to be normal over the northwest and the southern peninsula, and above normal in central India, rainfall is most likely to be below normal in the water-rich northeast. Additionally, the prediction is that during June, rainfall would be below normal in much of western and peninsular India, but is likely to normalise later in the season. The forecast for July would be available at the end of this month. It is, indeed, welcome that IMD has been leveraging global computing resources to update its multi-model monsoon forecast system.

However, timely forecasts need to be complemented with proactive policies on the ground to better manage water resources. Given rising water stress nationally, we do need to focus on water harvesting, and rationalise water usage in agriculture and industry. We also need to better allocate resources to shore up flood control, improve irrigation infrastructure to address drought conditions, and deploy lightning arrestors widely to reduce casualties.