US-Saudi N-word will have wider fallout

Last week, the US and Saudi Arabia signed a civil nuclear agreement. It underscores Washington's continuing interest in the Gulf. The pact departs from the US' 'gold standard' of non-proliferation safeguards, creating a contradiction. While Washington is willing to make concessions to Riyadh, it continues its 'maximum pressure' campaign against Iran's nuclear programme. But this is not unusual. 24 of 26 US civil nuclear agreements do not include it. The UAE, the only other Gulf state with such a pact, is the exception. However, the imbalance could still be addressed through the review clause in the 2009 US-UAE agreement.

Saudi Arabia's long-time rival, Iran, is now even less likely to compromise on the n-issue. Tehran has maintained that it has the right to enrich uranium. The issue is sensitive, because Israel follows an unstated policy of maintaining a regional nuclear monopoly. That explains Trump's late attempt to make Saudi membership of the Abraham Accords a condition for the deal. But Riyadh has repeatedly linked normalisation with Tel Aviv to a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood. Insisting on that condition could delay implementation of the agreement, perhaps explaining Trump's subsequent efforts to soften his position through social media.

The agreement's repercussions extend well beyond West Asia. It is important for the US because it limits China's scope to expand its influence in the Gulf while securing multibillion-dollar opportunities for US companies. But as Washington deepens its commitment to the region, Beijing is likely to redouble its efforts in the Indo-Pacific and its immediate neighbourhood. That makes the efforts of India, Japan and Australia to preserve a free and open Indo-Pacific even more critical.