US plus one for Indian students

This is the year the H-1B visa door began to make ominous creaking noises for Indian students and tech workers. Entry-level jobs are being filtered out, snapping a key lifeline for Indian students, the largest overseas cohort studying at US universities. The American dream was becoming elusive even before Trump stepped in with visa restrictions. Slowdown in tech hiring is expected to become more acute as AI adoption accelerates. Fresh Indian graduates are looking beyond the US as tighter visas and weaker tech hiring undermine job security, career growth and long-term residency prospects. Fortunately, the job market for expat workers is booming in several advanced economies where the native workforce has slipped, or is close to slipping, into a minority. These countries are adjusting their immigration policies and stand to benefit from US restrictions.

The US, however, remains the top draw for tech talent from across the world. H-1B is the key portal through which the US admits the expertise it requires. Exceptional talent from India will still find its way to the US, but the country will have to ramp up skills below the threshold it is now setting for immigrants. Job uncertainty for Indian students studying in the US will make this harder to achieve. A sizeable share of US college seats depends on overseas students to fill them. If Indian students begin to seek out other countries for higher education, the US may confront excess capacity in higher education. And Trump is not going to be around after 2028 to push his hardline stance on immigration.

The US has given the world one of the most effective templates for immigration. Other countries are likely to apply it even as the Trump regime seeks workable alternatives. A failed experiment could be expensive. For it to work, Trump will have to deliver on his other campaign promise of creating more skilled jobs through protection - and then fix the US school system to send more Americans to college. But that, as 'America First' tells us vociferously, shouldn't be our problem.