US blinks on Russia, India less fluttered

Donald Trump is buying time by waiving sanctions against Russia. This will supply the US diesel till after next month's US midterm elections. The 60-day waiver of tougher sanctions brought in by the Lindsey Graham Act won't boost Russian exports of diesel since its refinery capacity has been affected by Ukrainian drone attacks. The monthly Russian diesel supply terms announced by Trump work out to one day's US consumption initially, rising eventually to four days' consumption. This won't move the inflation needle as the Republicans seek to retain their slim majority in both houses of Congress in November. Fuel inflation that is affecting US transport and agriculture is a key consideration for the polls.

Russia has lost considerable diesel export capability due to Ukraine's targeting of its oil infrastructure. Moscow banned diesel exports earlier this year because of domestic fuel shortages. The US will have to ensure a ceasefire on Russian energy facilities if the promised diesel supply is to come through. And Trump will also have to dilute sanctions on Russia's tanker fleet to ship the diesel to the US. Yet, this won't clear up shipping lines fouled up by the US war on Iran. Tanker traffic caught in a Hormuz chokehold has to contend with hostilities spreading to the Red Sea.

The direct fallout on India of the Lindsey Graham sanctions waiver is mixed. India risked US tariffs of up to 100% for buying Russian oil, and was cutting back on these purchases. With more of its oil reaching the open market, Moscow may not need to discount its supplies. With the EU's sanctions still in place, Russian energy prices are likely to remain stable. Since the US waiver doesn't address the global supply shrinkage, oil prices are set to remain elevated. India, however, gets more breathing room over its trade surplus with the US that could have turned adverse had the tough new American sanctions been introduced on schedule. It's a short respite. Unless the US warms up more to Russia after the midterm polls.