Trump, do keep a leash on Israel

Last Sunday, Israel launched strikes in Beirut's southern suburbs that almost derailed the Iran-US deal to end the war. Tel Aviv's attempt to scupper the deal is likely to have given an extra nudge to push forth the MoU between Washington and Tehran scheduled to be inked in Burgenstock, Switzerland, tomorrow. Earlier this month, Trump reportedly had a heated exchange with Benjamin Netanyahu, questioning the Israeli PM's sanity, and ordering the US' closest ally not to strike Beirut while Washington was seeking a deal with Iran. Clearly, Israel thought it would wag the dog once again, the earlier occasion being when it managed to get the US to wage war on Iran on its behalf. But this time, Trump wants an exit before US midterms, while Netanyahu wants to keep the neighbourhood fires burning till Israel's parliamentary election. Understandably, Israel has not been made privy to the Iran-US deal document.

Iran's chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf was right to say that this 'game of bad cop (Israel) and good cop (US)' is outdated. Washington's leverage in West Asia rests on the perception that it's able to deliver outcomes. Yet, when Israel acts with impunity, the US has a credibility problem. Reopening the Hormuz Strait for safe passage, waivering Iranian oil sanctions and unfreezing Iranian assets is anathema to Likud leaders. Trump knows this. Thus, the trouble in US-Israeli paradise, underlined by POTUS' latest (factual) bumper sticker line: 'Without me, there would be no Israel'.

Over the next weeks and months, the US must ensure Israel doesn't go rogue. Until Washington demonstrates it can restrain poll-bound and corruption trial-tainted Netanyahu, the fingers- crossed 60-day negotiations with Iran will stand on shaky ground.