Trade and Talk

Six years ago, Mani Shankar Aiyar, India’s then-petroleum minister, began India-Pakistan talks to start trade in fuels. The post-Mohali thaw is a good time to make some progress on that idea. Official trade between India and Pakistan is tiny: exports are about $1.5 billion, imports about a fifth of that, and it makes sense to try and boost trade and diplomacy together. In the last decade, India, which imports most of its crude oil needs, has become an oil refining powerhouse, with large refineries operated by Reliance, Essar and a joint-sector project between HPCL and L N Mittal soon to come onstream at Bathinda. India already exports fuel — as much as 51 million tonnes in 2009-10 — and selling to Pakistan makes as much sense as selling to any other buyer. History shows that diplomatic relationships built on energy trade tend to be lasting, and we should seize this chance. Pakistan’s economy is in bad shape, with growth hovering around 2% and lines of foreign aid drying up. Its internal war on terror has been costly, in terms of money and manpower and also by draining institutional energies .

From Tuesday, when senior trade officials of the two countries meet, they should try and make sure that cross-border commerce can flourish and bring confidence back to Pakistan’s economy. Diplomacy needs to accompany trade. There have been reports, since denied, that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had initiated dialogue with Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, Pakistan’s military chief. The Opposition is fuming at the idea of our democratic government talking to the General. It should stop fretting and welcome the move. The only question is whether or not India stands to benefit by talking to all of Pakistan’s multiple power centres . And it had been NDA Prime Minister Vajpayee who started talking to Pakistan’s army chief, who also was its head of state. Pakistan has been ruled longer by military than by civilian administrations and the most stable source of power is not in Islamabad where legislators sit, but in Rawalpindi, its military headquarters. We would love Pakistani democracy to develop strong roots, and talking to the General might help that cause as well.