Tighter US Visa isn't all that bad for India

Tighter visa requirements for Indians studying or working abroad will intensify competition in the domestic market for white-collar employees. It will also bridge some of the skill gap Indian recruiters confront in local higher education. Western economies are raising the salary threshold for work visas, which tend to favour specific industries where demand props up wages. This has led to a concentration of foreign college degrees sought by immigrant Indian students, and the overall volume of students applying to universities overseas has declined. The supply response is being shaped by the adverse economics of acquiring a degree overseas.

The debt incurred to live and study abroad has become unserviceable for many students. Rising student indebtedness affects immigrants more than locals, whom they cross-subsidise. It works so long as the job market is competitive. Since western economies are erecting entry barriers to jobs, they will have to find alternative means of funding higher education. Some of the effects of stricter visa conditions will be felt in excess college capacity these countries had built under an easier regime. This could encourage universities to become more proactive about overseas campuses.

As a relatively faster-growing emerging economy, India can absorb a reverse brain drain. The process will be aided by the growth of GCCs. Jobs are moving to where the workers are for a wide swathe of MNCs. Immigration controls will speed up the trend. Governments seeking to distort global higher education and employment markets risk exporting both colleges and offices to countries like India that export manpower. This should lower the cost of acquiring skills in India and have second-order effects on productivity when the prodigals return home.