Three quad corners and a BRICS wall

It could well be the template for India for the foreseeable future. India and Australia inked agreements earlier this month to strengthen bilateral defence collaboration and reiterated strategic convergence of Quad countries. A security cooperation declaration with Japan was signed during Narendra Modi's visit this August. These are signals to Washington that while it's free to potter off, the three other 'corners' of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue remain invested in ensuring the Indo-Pacific remains free and open. Ironically, it was Trump 1.0 who gave Japanese PM Shinzo Abe's 2012 efforts to ensure a 'free and open' Indo-Pacific region an impetus.

On another front, Trump took yet another swipe last week at BRICS, which India will be chairing next year. The American president claimed that 'everyone is dropping out' of BRICS as a response to him threatening member countries attempting to devalue the dollar. Again, Washington is free to rattle this cage, even as this formation has Beijing as a fellow club member with New Delhi. The US should realise that the maths here is not a zero-sum game.

The big question is whether the Quad, less populated than BRICS, can survive as a stool with three legs, or if it becomes a three-legged stool. If there is one certainty in Trumpian foreign policy, it's uncertainty. The bilateral defence and security frameworks among the three non-US Quad countries keeps that strategic convergence in place, avoiding a confrontation with the now-you-see-it, now-you-don't partner. It leaves the door open for the US, and for new engagements with other countries of the region. The same gestalt logic holds for BRICS. But will Russia and China be given a free pass there is a question for the US to ponder over.