There's no business like war business

Business is booming as war becomes incredibly complex, commandeering ever-growing economic and technological resources. It also helps that armed conflict is splintering, which props up the global trade in arms and services used in warcraft. Defence budgets are rising across the globe, feeding a network of military-industrial complexes that count as their key members, companies that did not exist a few decades ago. Information, transport, logistics, communication - Musk activated Starlink's satcom system in Israel-attacked, internet-restricted Iran this week - and security have spawned powerful private players, many offering services to armed forces to plug gaps in military capabilities. Semiconductors drove the arms race for quite some time as countries sought to guide munitions to their precise targets. Now, it's the turn of magnets to propel swarms of smaller unmanned weapons. Satellite constellations are providing real-time information to opposing forces to a degree of detail unthinkable except to superpowers even a few years ago. Private military companies offering combat support services have grown substantially.

Then there is the main business of making and selling arms. Economics of the industry are well established as benefiting from rise in conflict. Arms are sold for their deterrence but create their own cycle of escalation - countries keep buying more and more expensive weapons in an attempt to gain the ability to strike at will. The arms industry ensures this impunity remains elusive for most countries. The market is carefully tuned so that growth doesn't slacken. And new players arrive continuously hawking fancy new tech, from hypersonic missiles to impenetrable air defence shields. These are expensive purchases that make a large section of the global population poorer than they ought to be.

There's no business like war business. The world is spending a lot to keep conflict under control. But it's not working out that way. Countries need to figure out how much of that is intentional.