The house always wins in the arms biz

It's been another good year for death merchants. Revenues from sales of weapons and military services by the 100 largest global arms-producing companies reached a record $679 bn in 2024, according to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri). Topping the list of hotspots are Ukraine and Gaza. But there have been other flashpoints like Iran and Pakistan. Buying and selling weapons have also become part of strategic 'trade relations'. Today's era, like previous ones, is an era of war. What's new is a fresh crop of arms-exporting nations trying to muscle in on the action that feeds McProliferation. The form of conflict is changing as well, bringing in new demand from non-state actors for heavy duty munitions. The bazaar is bustling, even as homilies are delivered with the straightest of faces.

The weapons business pencils in a threshold of conflict that keeps them in business no matter what. Phases of heightened conflict are followed by relative peace. Separately, countries are in a constant game of one-upmanship. They step back when stockpiles grow too big to manage safely. Newer toys enter the picture as warfare morphs towards unarmed combat. Chips are making way for magnets. The model is impeccable - weapons sold to 'both' sides, the 'house' always wins.

Long-held assumptions about globalisation are being tested as countries suit up for protectionism. This creates an environment of distrust that allows disagreements to turn hostile. Balance of power is also shifting as a group of economies acquires economic heft to challenge the established order. New tech like AI speeds this process along, implanting within nations fear of disruption and hope of pulling ahead. It's not conflict alone driving arms sales. Relations between countries - 'allies; included - are being radically altered by an uncertain future. Post-WW2 pacifists like Japan and Germany are rethinking in the name of protectionism in its most literal sense. All this, while the military-industrial complex laughs its way to the bunker.