Stop the smoke where there's fire

Contrary to rumours, stubble burning-induced farm fires are now down. The system has reportedly been gamed with many farmers burning crop residue post-3 pm, long after the monitoring satellite passes over the region, thereby avoiding detection. This is yet another example of India's penchant for jugaad-dodging, finding a way to beat the system at the cost of society at large. If India is serious about tackling its pollution terrorism, it needs to put in place a policy that incentivises compliance and penalises jugaad-dodgers.

Gaming of the system means that Delhi-NCR's pollution forecasting is off, as it relies on Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology's (IITM) Decision Support System, which uses satellite fire-count data to estimate how much stubble burning contributes to Delhi-NCR's PM2.5 levels. That automatically has policy implications. Any effort to tackle pollution at source will require policymakers to game out all possible behavioural patterns. Which means throwing the kitchen sink at problem and its peddlers. Even when it comes to the use of satellites, GoI needs to use different satellite and technology options that ensures something close to round-the-clock monitoring. This would require ground truthing, creating economic opportunities so that farmers see value in selling crop residue, as well as putting in place fines and disincentives that impose economic cost to burning stubble.

Yes, administrative costs do go up. But given the costs that poor air quality imposes on productivity, health and the economy, it is well be worth the extra spend. A clear structure for penalising non-compliance can balance the extra cost in the short term, while long-term efforts to transition away from residue-burning become the norm.