Soon, take your pick of more Ozempics

India, along with other key markets like China and Brazil, will see a key ingredient in weight loss drugs go off patent next year. This could lead to a drastic drop in prices as generics makers ready plans to produce their own versions of these drugs in countries with high incidence of obesity and associated lifestyle diseases such as diabetes. Competition is intensifying among patent holders Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as the expiry approaches. They are trying to shore up market shares through aggressive price cuts, although these are unlikely to match the level of inexpensive generics, which could sell for as little as a tenth of current prices.

The strategy is to pitch the drugs at affluent patients as a lifestyle product despite them being available only by prescription. MNCs holding patents for anti-obesity drugs are also sealing up arrangements with local pharmaceutical companies to widen their distribution. The idea is to raise product awareness in price-sensitive markets with rapid growth in obesity so that the overall numbers make up for market share that will eventually be lost to generics. Effort is also going into highlighting the innovators' value proposition to physicians. Some combinations will continue to enjoy patent protection for a while longer.

Affordable slimming drugs are expected to be wildly popular in a country that is battling its bulge unsuccessfully. A combination of rising affluence and inadequate health awareness makes India a key market for anti-obesity pills, even if they are not sold over the counter. Some degree of caution may be called for by Indian drug makers eagerly anticipating a blockbuster pill going off-patent. There is restraint built into the production process - these drugs are not easy to replicate. But regulators may have to consider more proactive messaging that while drugs to lose weight may be within reach, there is no substitute for exercise. The morning walk will do you more good than popping a pill to confuse your brain about hunger. But that's another ask and task.