RJD-JD(U) need a fresh narrative

An alliance between the Janata Dal (United)) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal has managed to get two JD(U) nominees elected to the Rajya Sabha from Bihar. RJD boss Lalu Prasad Yadav and JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar have been bitter rivals for decades, while ruling Bihar for 24 years between the two of them. Yet, circumstances — like the disastrous performance of both parties in the Lok Sabha polls this year — can lead to unexpected turns.

And both satraps now realise that their parties could be swamped by the BJP when assembly elections in Bihar take place one year hence. The RJD and JD(U) won a measly six out of Bihar’s 40 Lok Sabha seats, while the BJP won 22. But these numbers are deceptive: in a first past the post system, seats do not match votes secured. The BJP won 29.4% of all votes, the highest among all parties.

But the RJD still scooped up 20.1% of votes and the JD(U) won around 16%. Add to that Congress’ 8.4% and you get a near-45% share of votes. It is this arithmetic that makes this alliance look compelling. But numbers alone won’t do. The combine has to offer a credible narrative to voters. Lalu owes his political career to two things, his opposition to the BJP and his uplift of other backward castes (OBCs).

Nitish owes his to a promise of better administration and eating into the votes of some OBCs who felt they were passed over by Lalu. Both narratives are exhausted now. Nitish has one year to prove that he is an even better administrator outside the chief minister’s office, and Lalu has to find some aspirational narrative while retaining his hold over Muslims and OBC voters.

Perhaps he should make it clear to all that if the alliance wins, Nitish, and not a Lalu-proxy, would be its candidate for chief minister in the next elections.