Pakistan's meltdown needs therapy

Things will get significantly worse before it can get better in Pakistan. The lead-up to the February 8 election that saw Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) derecognised, the rigged election itself, and the 'heads we win, tails you lose' result in favour of anyone but Khan, have been bad enough. But with Rawalpindi's cage rattled by the impressive show of PTI-backed independents -who captured the highest (35%) vote share - the military knows that its good old days of being absolute puppet master are numbered. And that their diminished hold is now over a fast diminishing political economy.

A vacuum has been avoided, as of now, by the army-backed Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and Pakistan People's Party (together winning 49% of votes) government with Shehbaz Sharif from the first camp as a consensus PM. But this is a finger in the dyke. The deluge that awaits Pakistan before it can claim to find its proverbial 'road to Damascus' could be a popular uprising. Or, extremists of the Tehreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan variety forcing the issue. Either way, this does not look good for a nuclear power on the way to meltdown, which happens to be a member of our neighbourhood.

So, Pakistan will be, more than usual, a concern for an economically-chugging, geopolitically-expansive India. But the China-Pakistan 'eternal friendship' is getting strained on the ground with fast-diminishing returns on infrastructure spends and mounting debt. Plus, Pakistan's strategic value to the US is short of zero today. In this space, New Delhi can keep the hotline with Rawalpindi open while focusing elsewhere to ensure peace, stability and growth in the region. This could, inshallah, have a demonstration effect of the benefits of friendly relations.