Pakistan needs free elections and a democratic transfer of power

The two questions to ask while trying to make sense of all that is happening politically in Pakistan are: (a) where is the mess leading to, and (b) who is to blame for it all.

There is no clear answer to the first. With the Supreme Court ordering the arrest of PM Raja Pervez Ashraf, along with 15 others, in a case related to corruption in rental power projects, the political-Constitutional crisis has taken a turn for the worse.

The judiciary has been trying to insert itself into the equation as the third power centre in Pakistan - after the military and the political class. The hope was an assertive judiciary would strengthen institutional functioning and, by ensuing adherence to Constitutional norms, end up strengthening democracy and eroding the military's power.

But now it is no longer clear whether the judiciary has those aims firmly in sight. A weakened PPP desperately hanging on to power, as much else besides the power supply begins to fail in the country, strengthens the impression of a dangerous power vacuum. And with a figure like Tahir-ul-Qadri seeking space in that vacuum with demands like dismissing the government as well as the Election Commission, it seems Pakistanis might be deprived of something most democracies take for granted, but which they've never really had: a new elected government taking over from the previous one. Of course, the PM, since he's not yet convicted, can stay on.

Or perhaps the PPP can find another lightweight to stand in.

The second question is easier to answer. While Pakistan's feudal political class is also to blame, historically, leaving aside the machinations of the army, the PPP is at fault in the current mess.

More specifically, President Zardari. The whole judicial battle is to prosecute Zardari for his Swiss bank stash, and the whole government is held hostage to protecting him. The previous PM, Yousaf Raza Gilani, had to play sacrificial lamb, as he refused to write the letter to Swiss authorities demanded by the SC, reopening graft cases against Zardari.

The outcome of that tussle is uncertain. What is clear is that Pakistan needs free elections and a democratic transfer of power.