Never a moment too monsoon

The southwest monsoon arrived on Saturday, as predicted, ahead of schedule, and is expected to hit Kerala on May 26. As always, it's an early signal of the season that shapes India's farms, reservoirs and power demand. After 7 yrs of good monsoons, however, India's winning streak in the rainfall stakes appears to be ending. IMD's first forecast of the year projects rainfall at 92% of the long-period average (LPA), the weakest outlook in two decades. Yet, the early advance over the Andaman Sea also underlines a reality of recent monsoons: onset dates reveal little about how rainfall will eventually be distributed across the country.

Monsoon forecasts are keenly tracked in India. The June-September rains account for more than 70% of annual rainfall. This is not just about weather but also about the economy. It shapes electricity demand, especially cooling needs that are rising. Nearly half of India's cropland still depends on rainfall, making timely showers critical for output, farm incomes and rural demand. Rain also determines reservoir replenishment, drinking water availability and industrial supply.

The latest forecast hasn't triggered alarm bells. Reservoir storage levels are above decadal average, while river and lake rejuvenation efforts have strengthened. But recent years have brought intense downpours concentrated in short bursts, alongside floods, droughts and normal rainfall. Planning for such unevenness is difficult, though IMD's forecasting has become more granular, timely and actionable. The next step is helping farmers choose crops, preparing utilities for demand spikes, and enabling transport and freight systems to manage disruption. Monsoon forecasts must become less about anxiety and more about preparedness.