More immediate climate mitigation

So far, it has been a dry June for most of the country - barring the northwest, which received 5% more rain than normal. Other regions are in deficit - central India at 63%, the southwest monsoon is yet to reach Maharashtra, east and northeast are 43% short, and the southern peninsula is experiencing a 14% deficit. There is now a 60% chance of a deficient monsoon - less than 90% of average rainfall between 1971 and 2020. Many regions will experience very dry or even drought-like conditions.

Government response has been welcome. Not just in terms of the range of measures for affected farmers with alternatives, advice and assistance, but also the relative quick response time. Priority monitoring for 150-200 districts, weekly El Nino reviews, and nudging a shift towards cultivating cotton and pulses are good measures. But some long-term measures must be put in place that can provide continued guidance to farmers on how and what to cultivate as it gets hotter and rainfall more erratic. IMD forecasts have improved, but need to be more granular to ensure accurate, timely and actionable information. Creating an option of crops that can be grown in keeping with the forecast and adopting practices that improve climate resilience should be priority.

A drier monsoon coming on the heels of tightening and stressed fertiliser supply will disrupt agricultural production, irrespective of assistance provided. It will likely add to retail food inflation, impact farm incomes and batter rural demand. Monsoons are critical, especially to the rural farm-dependent economy. Even without the El Nino phase, erratic weather is the new normal. Government, along with all other stakeholders, must work together to improve resilience of the rural economy.