Middle powers find new strategic fuel

The signing of the administrative arrangement enabling Australia to sell uranium to India is the standout outcome of Narendra Modi's visit. While the 2008 India-US Civil Nuclear Deal ended India's pariah status in the global nuclear order, the successful conclusion of a decade of negotiations with Canberra marks another milestone, recognising India as a mature, responsible and growing economy. Beyond its diplomatic significance, the agreement gives New Delhi greater confidence to accelerate its transition to a low-carbon economy.

Trump's apres moi, le deluge approach - upending partnerships and alliances, disrupting the rules-based international order, accommodating Beijing, and deprioritising the Indo-Pacific - has accelerated the conclusion of agreements. The awakening of the middle powers has received additional impetus from the energy crisis triggered by the US-Israel war on Iran, the increasing impacts of climate change, and growing concerns about economic growth, competitiveness and supply chain security as countries seek to decarbonise economies. Finalising the arrangement for uranium sales strengthens India's pursuit of its target of 100 GW of nuclear power capacity. The deal will also add momentum to Australia's efforts to secure successful outcomes at this year's UN climate talks, which it is co-leading with Turkiye.

The uranium agreement, together with the expanding critical minerals, energy and defence partnerships between Australia and India, as well as similar agreements with Japan, Indonesia and, potentially, New Zealand, signals that middle powers are forging new pathways to strengthen the liberal international order that has underpinned decades of global prosperity and cooperation.