Make (Non-US) Indian Migration great again

Changes to citizenship introduced by Donald Trump among his first decisions after resuming the US presidency will affect immigration from India. Of course, the change has to be settled by the courts. But the Trump administration has introduced uncertainty into US immigration policy. The US is the destination of choice for high-skilled Indian immigrants, and doubt over citizenship status of the second generation spills over to migration flows to other countries as well. The backlog in naturalising immigrants of Indian origin in the US already has a disproportionate impact on their children who seek economic opportunity in other advanced economies. This brings the diaspora into competition with fresh migration from India. Since Trump is emphasising skill in his immigration policy, wage arbitration may not work in India's favour. The onus is on Silicon Valley to establish that it's, indeed, hiring the best available talent, and not merely replacing American workers with less expensive immigrants.

A slowing of high-skilled migration from India is an opportunity for the Indian economy to raise its potential growth. The latter will scale up secondary and tertiary employment as it moves into middle-income status, and labour cost will be a key variable at play. Slower migration also favours offshoring through wage arbitration. It's easier to provide more employment opportunities at home through faster economic growth than in a world where globalisation is in retreat. India's demographics are also turning adverse and altered migration at the top of the value chain may provide some comfort. The emerging skills gap needs intervention through proactive immigration policy and the obvious place to start is in the Indian diaspora.

Trump's action will have knock-on effects on other economies that rely on immigration. Its influence will be felt most in North America. But Europe and the Asia-Pacific will also recalibrate their receptivity to Indian white-collar migrants. This could be a good time for India to make migration more central to its development objectives.