Let's be entertained, if not thrilled

A way to soothe the mind and soul is tempering expectations from the budget. Not because the Feb 1 ritual has lost its significance. In fact, it may have acquired an element of gravity. But it's no longer a suspense movie. Today, it's a documentary. The stock market's interest rarely lasts beyond a week, leaving economists to decipher possible outcomes, if any. What has changed? First, the budget is not the only forum for new measures and grandstanding, with announcements happening round the year. Second, while customs duty changes can impact, the joys and dismays in specific stock counters have waned with GST. Third, too many moving pieces - no one knows what Team Trump will pull off after April 1.

Finally, though New Delhi keeps most cards close to its chest, it has betrayed its DNA: a fiscal conservative, it's likely to peg the deficit at (or very close to) the stated 4.5%. Besides reintroducing 15% tax for new manufacturing units, there's little it can do on corporate tax. Capital gains tax was raised last year. Except for some tinkering with personal I-T for lower slabs, a big bet to stoke consumption would be against the grain. A combination of harsh laws, technology to chase tax evaders and steep targets thrown at I-T officers has conjured a ghost that could take time to exorcise. It's beyond the budget.

So, what are the clues to fish for? Given the slowdown, the key number this year would be how much GoI plans to spend in the last quarter of FY25: a higher capex would signal a spending momentum that could continue in FY26. And amid the chatter that India has a 'wage problem' (not a 'job shortage'), a googly like a 'minimum living wage' to boost demand should not surprise. Documentaries, like TED Talks, can entertain, even if they don't thrill.