Lalu's UP formula of Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav's alliance doesn’t look feasible

In 1995, at the age of 39, Mayawati, leader of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), got to be the first Dalit woman to become chief minister of any Indian state. Yet, just 24 hours before taking oath, the Lucknow guesthouse she was staying in was stormed by goons, allegedly belonging to the Mulayam Singh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party (SP), with which she had just broken off an alliance. Since then, Mayawati has been chief minister three more times, matching the SP’s record of ruling Uttar Pradesh on four occasions. The similarity between the SP and the BSP ends there. So, the suggestion made by Lalu Prasad Yadav, leader of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), that the SP and BSP should combine forces, makes little sense. Sure, the RJD has tied up with Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) to thwart the BJP in Bihar, but Uttar Pradesh’s politics is more complex and relations between Mayawati and Mulayam too bitter to make an alliance feasible. Remember, the two have never backed each other since their 1993-95 alliance broke.

The BSP and SP differ in caste appeal and style of governance. The former appeals to sections of Dalits, upper castes as well as some Muslims; the latter plays its politics with the backing of other backward classes, mainly Yadavs, the most empowered OBCs, and Muslims. While Mayawati runs a tight administration, with good policing and minimum trouble, Mulayam prefers to let loyalists run wild and unleash violence in the countryside. The relative peace and discipline that Uttar Pradesh witnessed during 2007-12 was shattered the minute the SP came to power two years ago.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the SP won only five seats, the BSP none, with the BJP-led alliance sweeping 73 of the total 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh. That defeat still rankles the SP and BSP, but each has adopted a different strategy to snatch power back. The SP, now ruling the state, has adopted a scorched earth policy to hound all rivals out; the BSP is quiet, hoping to turn public revulsion at the violence against its arch-rival. An alliance seems to be the last thing on their minds.