Gas Shortage and Wajid Ali Shah’s Biryani: How energy shocks could reshape food supply

War employs unusual messengers. The one in the neighbourhood is brought home by the Big Fat Indian Wedding, where gas shortages are reportedly being felt, affecting menus and volumes. Flipping the standard wisdom of making hay while the sun shines, traditional weddings could do with some moderation and still retain their festivity. Much like biryani from the kitchens of exiled nawab of Awadh Wajid Ali Shah, which had to incorporate potatoes under financial duress (now a valued variety, by itself), caterers can get away with serving fewer courses.

Once shortages have made an appearance, they tend to show up in odd places. Gas bottled up in Hormuz Strait goes into making urea, whose stockpiles must be ready before the next crop is planted. Indian fertiliser companies have cut production because of natural gas shortage. When India, the world's largest importer, enters the market with a bigger shopping list, the price of urea is expected to surge. Agriculture soaks up around 30% of the world's energy.

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It can't do without electricity to pump water, natural gas to produce fertilisers, and diesel to transport food. Even a few weeks of energy disruption can have an outsized effect on food output depending on its timing. Planting for the monsoon crop is a couple of months away. In other parts of Asia, from where India buys food, monsoon arrives earlier. India has stockpiles of cereals, but is dependent on imports for plant-based proteins like pulses and vegetable oil. Wedding caterers should tailor their summer menus accordingly.

The effect Russia's invasion of Ukraine had on the fertiliser industry is still being felt globally. Prices have not returned to their pre-conflict levels, and production is now concentrated in a volatile part of the world. Countries, including India, reacted to Russia's fertiliser export bans with food export control. The US-Israel war against Iran will also have a domino effect in the world food market. Energy shocks grab headlines. But food shocks tend to linger in cuisines, like aloo in biryani.