For India Inc, oil can be the new data

Trump's ever-excited announcement of investment by Reliance in a Texas oil refinery - an announcement yet to be confirmed by the company - seems to be the president extracting his investment promises. Our industry champions could do well to step up and follow suit. It can certainly help India and the US to rebalance trade. The US has had a goods trade deficit with India of $58 bn in 2025, while it ran up a small surplus in services trade of about $102 mn in 2024. The two countries are negotiating an agreement to expand bilateral trade with a cautionary eye on persistent US deficits. An easy way out is for India to increase its energy imports from the US. India Inc can also help play a bigger role in shaping the country's geopolitical strategy through such transactional dealings with an openly transactional regime.

The US exports both shale oil and refined petroleum like petrol, diesel and jet fuel. But American refining capacity is geared towards imported heavy crude varieties, and shale oil has to be exported. This introduces inefficiency in the US energy market that can be set right through fresh investment in refining. On India's part, it has been diversifying its energy supplies as a geopolitical risk management strategy. The economy needs an energy-from-all-sources approach to sustain its growth rate. It must also make provisions for a higher energy intensity of growth.

It's relatively easier for the US and India to find common ground over trade in energy and arms, than over trade in food. Global energy trade is being rerouted by conflict, and India is charting its own course during a phase of heightened volatility. Offshore energy investments provide a mechanism to offset the country's dependence on imports. Smart sourcing can cover the gaps in India's energy transport and storage infrastructure. It also helps to increase market access for India's manufacturing exports, which eventually should be able to pay for energy from overseas. It looks like oil is the new data, and India Inc can get its second act going.