First, respite, then, hopefully, peace

After 15 months of relentless conflict in the Gaza Strip, the Israel-Hamas ceasefire brokered by the US, Qatar and Egypt on Jan 15 offers hope. Fragile hope. Over six weeks, Hamas will release 33 Israeli hostages, while Israel will free 1,900 Palestinian prisoners. Talks about ending the war, which began with the Oct 7, 2023, Hamas attacks, and rebuilding Gaza are set to begin on Feb 4. But let there be no illusions: the ceasefire isn't peace, it's a temporary reprieve. Yet, with some fortune, it could become a first step toward lasting resolution in a region desperate for stability.

Several factors could derail it. Qatar, Egypt and the US were critical to this agreement, with Donald Trump-appointed envoy Steve Witkoff brought in during the final phase. Their ensuring adherence to terms will be vital. Yet, Trump, while taking credit for the ceasefire, has expressed doubts about its durability. He has pledged stronger support for Israel, including rescinding Joe Biden's executive order that slapped sanctions on far-right Israeli settler groups accused of violence against Palestinians in occupied West Bank. Benjamin Netanyahu must secure backing from far-right allies for phase 2. Palestinians need glimmers of a political solution recognising their right to self-determination.

Already, cracks show. Israeli settlers have reportedly torched Palestinian properties, and at least 10 Palestinians were killed and nearly 40 injured during a major Israeli operation in Jenin. For now, guns are silent in Gaza, aid is coming in again, and Palestinians and Israelis are hoping to rebuild. Without concerted efforts by ceasefire architects to engage in good faith, peace will remain a mirage, and this truce will be just a pause before violence resumes.