Every arms exporter loves a good war

On Friday, we saw a familiar bromance in action - Vladimir Putin leading Russia's Victory Day commemorations, with Xi Jinping joining him for the parade in Red Square. This display of Sino-Russian bonhomie - despite sanctions against Russia for launching the Ukraine war, and the ongoing US-China trade war - was telling for one more reason: China provides weaponry to Pakistan, while Russia sells their heavy stuff to India. Ergo, India and Pakistan are fighting each other, while the two Tony Starks laugh their way to the bank.

Over the past few decades, the global market for conventional arms has become increasingly export-oriented as new buyers and sellers emerge against the backdrop of rising global defence spending. Traditional exporters like the US, Russia and France are increasingly relying on arms exports to balance their trade with the world. Meanwhile, energy-surplus nations such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Ukraine are driving demand from the buyers' side. New arms-exporting countries like South Korea, Israel and Turkey are leveraging shifting geopolitical alignments to strengthen their market position. Major buyers like India and Pakistan are changing their procurement strategies. New Delhi is focusing on indigenisation and reducing its reliance on Russia, while Islamabad has shifted shop to China. Neither Russia nor China needs defence exports to balance trade. Russia has immense energy exports, while China boasts an enormous manufacturing trade surplus. But both face pushback from European and US consumers, creating an opportunity for export-driven arms markets.

This trend is increasingly concerning as conflicts worldwide evolve to involve non-state actors and tech-driven warfare. Rising supply of inexpensive smart weapons contributes to the risks of escalation. Unmanned combat often hides the true cost of conflict, while vulnerabilities grow for interconnected infra, where both state and non-state actors can launch cyberattacks. Anti-globalisation is driving a perverse globalisation of the arms trade. Rise in conflict is, perhaps, an unintended consequence.