Credible data can credibly protect

In recent weeks, Singapore and Hong Kong have noted a surge in Covid cases. Health authorities have said the spike could be due to waning population-level immunity, and fewer elderly people getting booster shots. While India is monitoring the situation, it is an opportune moment to take note of the recently released 2021 Civil Registration System (CRS) report. The report states that India saw a sharp rise in deaths during the Covid year of 2021, with around 25.8 lakh more deaths registered compared to 2019. While not all these excess deaths can be linked to Covid, even after accounting for natural population growth over two years, the surge stands at about 20 lakh - nearly 6x the official death toll of 3.3 lakh for 2021. That is a discrepancy that needs to be taken seriously.

The excess deaths in 2021 are close to the lower end of WHO's estimate - between 26.6 lakh and 54.8 lakh - for excess deaths due to Covid that year. Although it's difficult to attribute all excess deaths to Covid, they provide a measure of the pandemic's scale and toll. To be sure, many countries struggled to provide proper pandemic death counts. Victims were missed because they were not tested, registration was patchy, and all-cause mortality data is published with lags. Counting the dead in India is sketchy: about half of all deaths occur at home; many have no medically certified cause, or not registered at all.

Information about death and disease is critical to improving health outcomes, and to justice. The new CRS data have given fresh support to family members fighting court battles since 2022, arguing that excess deaths spiked after vaccination. Without credible reporting and data, India risks fighting tomorrow's public health battles blindfolded.