Bypoll results are bad news for BJP

The results of two Lok Sabha by-elections in Karnataka, soon after the Congress swept to power in the state, are significant. This was, of course, a test for new chief minister Siddaramaiyya’s ability to swing voters in favour of the Congress. More significantly, this by-poll is significant for testing the prospects of regional parties that tie up with the BJP. And the result is bad news for the BJP and its hopes of expanding its National Democratic Alliance beyond its existing four parties. HD Deve Gowda-led Janata Dal (Secular) tied up with the BJP, even while making Third Front noises, to ward off the Congress and BJP-rebel Yedyurappa’s new formation. The by-polls were also a test whether JD(S) boss HD Kumaraswamy, could convince voters to accept his wife as a candidate as willingly as they had accepted him, in the Bangalore Rural seat. Congress has won both seats, earlier occupied by the JD(S), with convincing margins.

In Mandya, which the JD(S) had won with a narrow margin of 20,000 in 2009, the BJP-backed JD(S) has been routed with a margin of over 70,000 votes. In Bangalore Rural, things are even more dismal. In 2009, Kumaraswamy had won this with a margin of 1.3 lakh votes. Today, the Congress has won this seat with an even bigger margin: 1.4 lakh votes. Siddaramaiyya can claim to have delivered, in a region where the JDS) has traditionally been very strong.

It would be very hard for regional parties to not draw the following conclusion: it is a bad idea for any party to align with the increasingly Narendra Modi-led BJP before elections. The JD(S) has learnt this the hard way, by getting routed in the byelections. Other regional parties that were waiting for the outcome of the by-elections, would have taken note. The development also strengthens the move to form a Third Front.