Better forecasts save lives in cyclones, but India needs stronger defences and faster recovery

India experiences an average of 5 cyclones a year, of which 2 become severe cyclonic storms. There is a pattern to cyclonic activity with Bay of Bengal generating 4 for every 1 in Arabian Sea.

Bay of Bengal has a shape and surface water temperature that favour formation and intensity of tropical cyclones. There is also a seasonality with frequency rising during April-June and October-December.

This predictability, along with better detection and tracking, has improved India's cyclone response. Timely evacuation has significantly brought down fatalities. But there is wide scope to shorten the time it takes to get normal life post-storm.


Destruction can be reduced through a combination of structural engineering and environmental protection. Buildings have to be retrofitted to strengthen their hurricane-resistance structure. Utilities like electrical panels and generators must be protected against flooding. Sea walls, storm surge barriers and drainage channels need regular maintenance in low-lying areas. Mangrove belts that help slow down surface wind and waves have to be expanded to reduce coastal erosion.

Community training must be regularised to practise rapid orderly evacuation. Local communities must be made part of capacity building. Restoration of livelihood involves timely provision of farm inputs, cash-for-work programmes in reconstruction, and wider access to subsidised credit.

The metric for disaster management is dynamic because climate change is impacting cyclonic activity. Global warming of ocean surface temperatures is putting populations at greater risk. Advances in satellite imaging and data analytics help predict origin, intensity, course and landfall of cyclones. But structural and environmental defences remain inadequate.

Successive heatwaves the country is experiencing drive high-pressure systems called 'anticyclones' and work in tandem with tropical cyclones to form destructive weather patterns. This reduces cyclone predictability through atmospheric steering, timing shift and post-landfall hazard.