Beijing talks and Delhi BRICS meet shape global power week

Trade, AI and Taiwan - with Iran and oil as a 'main side dish' - will dominate the Xi-Trump powwow in Beijing on May 14-15. Expectations are understandably modest. For Trump, it will be his first trip to China since 2017. His gut-directed foreign policy needs a quick win, especially as Washington and Tehran play a dangerous game of chicken with the global economy held hostage. Xi, by contrast, remains calm, methodical, calculating.

China has pushed back against parts of Trump's tariff agenda, while Washington remains focused on narrowing the trade imbalance. For Xi, offering Trump a few quick wins - Boeing aircraft purchases, soybean orders, and movement on a proposed US-China Board of Trade and Board of Investment - could buy China greater flexibility on Taiwan. The US has reportedly delayed a major arms package to Taiwan, but Beijing wants more. India and the broader Indo-Pacific should watch how Washington navigates these pressures. The US wants guard rails on AI. Beijing has little interest, unless access to advanced US tech is part of the bargain. On Iran, neither is likely to budge from their positions.

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As it happens, BRICS foreign ministers will be meeting in New Delhi on the very same days. For Beijing, the US remains the only true peer competitor. But the BRICS ministerial still carries demonstration value: a support network of 'anti'-US states that India has traditionally ensured doesn't evolve into an anti-US platform. However, Trump's oscillating approach toward allies and adversaries - combined with his close ties to Pakistan - could complicate that balancing act. India must secure its own voice and interests as a middle power while crafting a message that prevents BRICS from becoming merely a platform for Beijing's ambitions.